Month: September 2024

As holding companies invest millions in building and acquiring complex AI tools, Publicis’s acquisition of long-established shopper marketing specialist Mars United Commerce makes ‘perfect sense,’ says analyst. Launched in 1973 by shopper marketing pioneer Marilyn Barnett, Mars United Commerce today employs over 1,000 people across 14 global offices and leverages its suite of commerce solutions to drive growth through shoppers for global brands, including Coca-Cola, Unilever, Lego, Molson Coors, Samsung and Johnson & Johnson. The acquisition becomes the latest in a raft of purchases aimed at further building Publicis’s commerce capabilities for its clients. In July, the group acquired Influential, the world’s largest influencer agency, while March saw its Publicis Sapient business takeover supply chain consulting business Spinnaker SCA. In 2023, Publicis also acquired the website personalization engine Yieldify. Analysing the thinking behind the Mars deal, Tony Walford, director at corporate finance and advisory firm Green Square, said: “While there has been tons of talk around AI and how it can bring efficiencies, smarter ways of working and lots of agencies are throwing the kitchen sink at it (S4 and its Monks being a notable example), the fact still remains that buying good agencies that generate measurable client revenue growth, from techniques the client understands, still can’t be beaten. “It was interesting that Shopper Media Group (SMG) was mentioned a lot in the Next 15 results announcement on Tuesday. It clearly sees this as a jewel in its crown and I’m proud to say it was a Green Square transaction. SMG is very high growth, has analytics capability, which Mars also has in its Marilyn platform and Shopper clearly works. It may well be Publicis was eyeing SMG’s success and, given Mars is also very strong in the retail arena, it makes perfect sense.” The group’s continued acquisition strategy is being fuelled as a result of delivering above expected figures in recent months. In the summer, Publicis reported bullish Q2 figures and told investors it was raising its 2024 net revenue organic growth guidance from 4-5% to 5-6% after reporting organic growth of 5.4% for the first half of 2024 and a better-than-expected 5.6% in the second quarter. The US (up 5.3%) and China (up 10.5%) were among its biggest success stories in Q2. Bringing Mars into Publicis means its clients can now create and implement end-to-end commerce solutions that optimize strategy and insights, combining first-person data from its Epsilon arm with that of Mars to give a 360-degree view of purchase journeys; combine the scale Publicis Media with Mars’s deep understanding of retail organizations; and merge insights into e-commerce sales and operations from Publicis’ digital shelf platform Profitero. Publicis Groupe CEO Arthur Sadoun said: “Following the acquisition of Influential, we are now in a unique position, able to help clients understand their existing customers and future prospects, and connect that knowledge on an individual level across the new media channels that work hardest for their business: connected TV, creators and commerce. All of this, in its own ecosystem, giving it control over its customer relationships and transparency in its investments and outcomes.” Rob Rivenburgh, global CEO at Mars United, will continue in his role and Publicis has said there will be no major changes in senior personnel within Mars, which will remain as its own branded entity within Publicis Groupe. “Joining Publicis Groupe will help Mars realize our vision of being the preeminent global commerce company faster and more completely,” said Rivenburgh. “We’re excited to have the support of Publicis to bring new opportunities to our existing clients and also to share our connected commerce solution with new clients around the globe. We look forward to writing the next chapter of commerce together.” Sadoun added: “We are delighted to be welcoming Rob and his incredible teams at Mars to Publicis Groupe. Its innovative spirit and proprietary platforms will further connect and complement our existing capabilities to deliver industry-leading, end-to-end commerce solutions for our clients, both online and offline. “With the acquisition of Influential this summer, and now Mars, Publicis is uniquely positioned to help our clients understand both existing consumers and future prospects and connect that knowledge at an individual level to the new media channels that work hardest for their business: connected TV, commerce and creators. All of this, in clients’ own ecosystems, gives them control over their customer relationships and transparency in their investments and outcomes.” Read more  

Sir Martin Sorrell’s S4 Capital and Tim Dyson’s Next 15 both announced H1 figures this week and neither made particularly palatable reading for shareholders or staff. Green Square’s Barry Dudley offers some analytical morsels around these latest numbers. Two businesses with very different operating models – Next 15 is decentralized, empowering the business units, while S4 operates with one P&L. But they currently have a common challenge in their dependence on tech services clients, with Next 15 having 34% of net revenues in this sector and S4 an even bigger lump at 44%. Declines they have seen in this sector are the primary reason that their results are behind where they would like them to be. With all that said, you probably know what picture their numbers are going to be painting, so as well as touching on the maths I am going to try and extract a few lessons or food for thought that you may find useful. Starting with Next 15, its net revenues were down 2.2% organically in H1. Certainly not great, but just under two weeks ago, it announced that one of its biggest clients had decided that it would not renew its contract after the initial three-year term – there have been estimates suggesting that this could be 10% to 12% of 2026’s revenues (which will be the first full year without that contract), as well as hitting 2025’s revenues. Next 15’s share price halved on the news. As part of its acquisition model, which involves paying a proportion of its consideration in its own listed equity (much like S4), there will be quite a few people feeling a little upset right now. Havas and IPG encountered a similar challenge in their H1 results: IPG was hit by the “loss of a large AOR assignment with a telco client late last year” and Havas had a “partial loss of a big client in the US.”

Food for thought 1

Client overdependence will bite you at some stage. Possibly one of the toughest things to fix in any size of business, but certainly something you should always be looking to address. Tim Dyson, Next 15’s CEO, was typically frank and forthright. His description of some of its companies that aren’t doing well as “being on the naughty step” was kind of refreshing and as you would expect, he countered that by calling out the businesses that have been doing well. He half apologized for mentioning SMG quite a few times, which has seen “80% growth” and that’s before it has cracked the US – Green Square acted for SMG when it went into Next 15, so we are very happy with the mentions… Dyson’s frankness got really interesting when he talked about its ‘next Next 15’ strategy and the work it has been doing with the board.

Food for thought 2

Dyson said that as it has bought more and more businesses, its head office costs have naturally grown, but to a level that no longer works. Any group should regularly be revisiting these costs, how central services are provided, evolving how everything fits together. Even a one-entity business needs to periodically review how senior management costs, finance, IT, HR etc are functioning and whether they are fit for purpose. Which may mean hiring as opposed to cutting.

Food for thought 3

Dyson referenced the need to “prune” the number of operating entities as things were sometimes “inefficient,” which would involve reducing the 21 or 19 significant businesses (depending on how you define significant!) down to 12. Just as head office and back office need regularly reviewing, how all your business units, offers and products fit together needs to be continually revisited and evolved too.

Food for thought 4

Another challenge that Dyson highlighted with the growing number of business units was having clients in “multiple parts of the business” and that they are “not as joined up as they need to be.” Existing clients are likely to be the best and most effective sources of new business. You may not have units that need to talk to each other more, but focusing on what more you could do for your existing clients, perhaps for other brands they have that you currently don’t act for, should be new business agenda item number one.

Food for thought 5

In going from 21 (or 19!) to 12 significant businesses, Dyson referenced “culture” as being fundamental when bringing businesses together. Whether you are looking to restructure or not, maintaining a brilliant culture arguably has to be the biggest priority. It’s easy to get lost in numbers when headwinds blow but never forget the talent.

Food for thought 6

In another article on The Drum, I referenced how New Commercial Art’s clear agency proposition was fundamental to the exciting deal it did with WPP. Dyson said at one point during the earnings call: “You guys just are clueless about what our business does.” He rightly stated, however: “We need to solve that.” Imagine you had one minute in a lift with Tim Dyson to explain what your business does and why it is exceptional…

Food for thought 7

Dyson described an AI capability where something that takes two to three days can now be done in an hour. But what the client receives at the end is the same thing. How do you maintain pricing and revenues with these sorts of dynamics? We’ll come back to this one. Although Next 15 is working through some bumps, I see it as a fundamentally strong business, with net debt below 1x Ebitda, going back to basics. As Dyson concluded: “We remain on the naughty step, but we’re working hard to get off it.”

Turning to S4…

S4’s bumps seem another level bigger. Net revenues were down 13.5% on a like-for-like basis. “Global macroeconomic uncertainty” and “higher interest rates” were cited as factors, but most of the other listed peers have had this too but not been hit this hard. I would argue it’s the “client caution, particularly among, large technology clients” that’s the toughest thing it is grappling with. It reduced the “number of Monks” by just under 1,000 (around 12%) in the last 12 months. While its outlook for the full year talks of revenues being down versus original guidance, it believes operational Ebitda will be maintained. This can only be delivered through more cost savings. And while tech clients in general are a challenge, there was the seemingly inevitable “lower activity from one key client” in that sector that hit hard (see Food for thought 1). Revenues were down in all three existing revenue segments, Content, Data & Digital Media and Technology Services, the latter down 36.6%. The operational Ebitda margins for these segments were 2.6%, 15.3% and 35.7% in H1 2023, respectively. These changed to 6.9%, 18.5% and 12.4% in H1 2024. So maybe not a huge surprise to hear that there will be two segments moving forward – Marketing Services and Tech Services (see Food for thought 3 and 6). But the standout section of the earnings presentation was Section 4: Artificial Intelligence. Scott Spirit, chief growth officer, stepped in for Wes ter Haar, who was in client meetings, to walk through what S4 is doing here. It was impressive, pretty much what I imagine GM was taken through when S4 pitched for (and won) work from that client. This demonstrated front foot, top to bottom embracing of AI and what can be done with it, what’s possible. Next 15 is marching ahead here, too, but Dyson started his talk around AI by saying: “We can’t avoid AI.”

Food for thought 8

Whether you think AI is going to turn things on their heads or is going to just be something that makes your existing business a little more efficient, you have to have a view. And you have to demonstrate knowledge and confidence around AI to your clients and prospects, not least because they are likely to know less than you! This brought things back to Food for Thought 7 – pricing. There was talk of moving away from “time and materials” (but not completely) and to an “output model,” “license fees” and “price per asset.” These are tough things to make happen and getting away from just time and materials has been an objective for decades, but now the opportunities to genuinely have a case and a model to shift the pricing model really exist. S4’s full-blown embracing of AI is typical of Sir Martin – his macro and future view of the industry has always been respected and is more often than not right. His challenge here is the timeline to get the model right to deliver stand-out results in the future as the market heads the way he foresees when he has the financial markets wanting returns and answers right now. Never underestimate Sir Martin. Read more