Sectors: Corporate

Stagwell has significant growth ambitions, as recent reports of founder Mark Penn approaching a potential merger with S4 Capital show. With a technological focus, it currently employs around 13,000 people across more than 34 countries within agencies such as Anomaly, 72&Sunny, Forsman & Bodenfors, Doner and Gale. Speaking to ADWEEK, Penn would not comment on any progress of a potential $700m merger offer, repeating that it’s “pencils down.” But, M&A is on the cards, with a “steady stream of strategic acquisitions” planned, as well as growth in Europe and, like many agencies, figuring out AI. International expansion is a priority, said Penn, following end-of-year results that saw international revenue grow by 13% last year, largely driven by EMEA, where growth was 17% for the year. Overall, he forecasts 5% to 7% organic revenue growth, expecting clients to increase their spending after a challenging year for marketing services, where tech companies, in particular, have reduced spending. “We’re diversifying our geographic footprint. [At the moment] we’re at about 20/80 U.S. to global/U.S but we want to get that to about 60/40… as soon as possible,” he said. That’s buoyed by recent M&A activity like buying creative agency Movers+Shakers for a reported $50 million, as well as culturalist agency Team Epiphany, European-based specialist agency group Sidekick and French digital agency What Next Partners. According to Green Square partner Barry Dudley, any move to merge with S4 Capital would be focused on growing scale and take the resulting company to around 22,000 people, placing it on a similar size to that of Havas, another rumored suitor for Martin Sorrel’s empire. Sorrell has dismissed the offers saying there had been “no credible takeover approaches”. “All of the big groups will have been circling one way or another,” said Dudley. “S4C would undoubtedly bring new capabilities and expertise, but I don’t think this would be the main driver.”

A focus on European growth

In September, Stagwell announced the promotion of its media agency Assembly’s CEO James Townsend to CEO of EMEA. He will be based out of the newly opened London hub, supporting the 20 agencies operating in the region. “We expect our growth to come from share gains within Europe,” Penn said. “Already we see the kinds of pitches and opportunities that we’re getting once people realize the diversified talent we have there.” Currently, its roster of clients in Europe includes BMW, Unilever, Netflix, P&G, Lenovo, Diageo, Google, Estee Lauder and Volvo. “There’s a huge opportunity and momentum building in our EMEA business where we intend to be an alternative to the established competition,” Townsend claimed. Within Townsend’s new remit is M&A as well as a focus on unlocking greater vertical integration across agencies to help clients do more with less and navigate an increasingly fragmented media landscape. Procurement specialist Tina Fegent, who has handled agency pitches involving Stagwell believes that while there is a desire for digital expertise, not all clients want their agency partner to be digital-first. “Brands want a mix,” she said. “The individual agencies are strong, especially in the States,” said Fegent, “but they need to be more connected and talking more about clients that are already using them across multiple agencies.” A return of the business’ Sport Beach activation at Cannes Lions for a second year is another example of Stagwell’s growing ambitions, with Penn describing plans for this summer as “Sports Beach Plus” as it aims to go bigger.

AI to recreate the customer experience

Stagwell has recently worked with Google and Oracle to develop AI applications to add to its tech stack. “We don’t forsake or minimize the role of human creativity,” said Penn. “We believe you’ve got to have high levels of talent and technology and combine those into a modern offering.” Rather than generating creative assets or efficient market research, he views AI as useful for recreating the customer experience and brand connection. “There are many companies now that do no external advertising, their entire brand image is created through the experience that people have interacting with them online, that experience is going to fundamentally change,” he said. Read more

S4 Capital has reported a 25% drop in core earnings after what the group described as a “difficult” 2023. Will things get any easier in 2024? Green Square’s Tony Walford examines its prospects and explores whether a mooted mega-merger could offer salvation. Sir Martin Sorrell is an incredibly resilient character, indeed potentially the most resilient of our industry over the last 50 years. His career includes being ‘the third Saatchi’ in the ’70s, where he completed multiple acquisitions, through to creating WPP in the ’80s (and building it to be the largest marketing group in the world), to creating his current digital group, S4. His career has seen him deal with many issues, from personal slants following hostile takeovers, criticism from institutional shareholders over his employment contract, shareholder revolts over his remuneration, and the famous Shepherd’s Market personal misconduct accusation. The latter led to him being ousted from WPP and creating S4, the vehicle he used to buy the highly regarded creative production outfit Media.Monks and subsequently making MightyHive S4’s first digital media buy. S4 has since completed over 30 acquisitions on a funding model that includes a mix of cash and S4 shares and no earnouts – the idea is the earnout is effectively replaced by the future increase in value of the shares received by those selling in. However, S4’s share price has declined from 878p in September 2021 to today’s 40p, following myriad issues that started with delayed audit reports on fears of poor financial controls and accounting practices, through to repeated profit warnings and worries over Sorrell’s own health. Today’s results announcement was really nothing new – more tales of woe, clients spending less due to recessionary fears, challenging macroeconomic issues, revenues for 2024 anticipated to be down again, but operational profits expected to hold constant. There was no joy in there aside from its debt at £180m being at the bottom end of expectations – a little ray of light in a high-interest rate environment – and a possible first dividend if the second half of 2024 looks good. So, where does this leave S4? There have been rumors of a bid by Stagwell at a premium to S4’s current £240m market value. Sorrell has dismissed this by saying he has not received a credible approach, but surely others must be circling. Despite the current share price languishing around the 40p mark, S4 has some great talent from smart acquisitions. It has a solid blue-chip client base, 10 of which are each delivering over $20m in revenue (albeit a very significant chunk of S4’s revenue comes from the tech sector, which is facing its own challenges) and it has taken action on cost reduction. Thus, it remains an attractive proposition for many competitors that could do with this expertise and client base, which is why I expect to see more approaches over the coming months. It’s hard to see where S4 can go from here on its own. As mentioned earlier, its model has been built on acquisition, buying agencies with a fairly big chunk (up to 50%) in S4 shares. When your share price is 800p+, you don’t have to issue that many to get to a decent value. When it’s 40p, you have to issue 20 times that number to get to the same price. So, S4’s hands are tied unless it’s prepared to significantly dilute – not a very attractive thought. And what will those who took shares at 800p be thinking? Not only has the share consideration element they received dropped by 95%, but they must question if it is ever going to recover. And given S4’s repeated profit warnings, who would want to become part of that group at this moment in time? But you could argue for the share price, the only way is up. I’ve said it before – underestimate Sorrell at your peril. He is the King of Resilience and I hope that the next piece Green Square writes on S4 is a more positive one… not least because I am also a shareholder. Read more