Last week we were delighted to host the launch of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (LCCI’s) Q3 Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) in our offices, a survey which we are proud to sponsor.
The QES is undertaken by the respected market research organisation, Savanta, who surveyed a total of 530 London business leaders between 30 July and 30 August 2024 on a range of business issues. With London contributing over 20% to the UK’s economy, the QES is an important bellwether of the wider economy and shows London is contributing to the economic health of the country.
Overall, the QES showed positive trends continuing across domestic demand, the labour market and the wider economic outlook, albeit with costs remaining a concern for business. Whilst turnover and profitability expectations both fell in Q3, both measures remained well in positive territory at about +30. Adding to the good news was overall company prospects reaching a new post COVID high of +29. Although there were slight falls in export sales and investment in plant and equipment and training these were relatively small and these measures all stayed in positive territory.
Against this positive backdrop, concern was expressed in the launch discussion as to the negative impact recent “kite flying” about possible Budget measures on business confidence since the survey was undertaken. We are also hearing of concerns from businesses about the impacts proposed labour law reforms by the new Government could have on their cost base and ability to flexibly right size their labour requirements.
It is clear that the Budget at the end of the month needs to ensure that its contents, and the associated messaging, will help foster the confidence that was in London when the survey was taken and not harm these “green shoots”. The Budget is a pivotal point in setting the London (and wider UK) economy on a sustainable growth path which will benefit all. It will be interesting to see how the Budget is reflected in the Q4 QES results which will be announced in mid-January 2025. Keep an eye on the LCCI’s events page if you would like to be the first to hear the results of the next QES.
Will it be a case of winter blues or spring is in the air? We will know in three months’ time, but let’s hope for the latter and a positive start to 2025.
The full Q3 QES can be found here.
